As teams across MLB near the end of the first quarter of the season, we begin to take a serious look at the standings in each division. Now we can see which teams may have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot at the end of the year. While it is acceptable to speculate about teams now, it is also important to remember that the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Therefore, teams that have gotten off to a great start will need to play at a high level through the summer months in order to earn a chance to play in October. With that being said, here are some teams that have had surprisingly successful starts to the 2011 campaign as well as what to expect from each team during the rest of the season.
1. Cleveland Indians – The Indians have surprised everyone and taken control of first place in the American League Central. As a team, Cleveland is among the top five in the league in most major hitting categories, including runs scored, batting average, and slugging percentage. Asdrubal Cabrera has six home runs and a stunning 26 RBIs in this young season. Travis Hafner, who only had 13 home runs and 50 RBIs last season, already has 5 home runs and 22 RBIs to complement a team leading .345 batting average. Two 26-year old starting pitchers, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, lead the pitching staff with five wins each. The most impressive part of the Indians’ surge to first is the ability to win games in the last inning, especially at home, where they have have won their last five games in walk off fashion. The Indians also have the best record in the MLB at home, 15-4, but sadly Progressive Field often looks like an early scene from the movie Major League with empty seats outnumbering the number of fans.
Prediction: The Indians will fight for the division title late in the season. While I am not certain that the Indians will continue to play as well as they have thus far, I am also not certain that any other team in this division has enough talent to force the Indians out of the race. The young Royals have a lot to learn, the Twins have dug themselves a deep hole, the Tigers need to prove themselves on a consistent basis, and the White Sox can’t seem to put it together. Therefore, fans should try to get out to the ballpark and watch the Tribe fight for a division that is wide open.
2. St. Louis Cardinals- The St. Louis Cardinals took a devastating blow just before the season began with the injury of Adam Wainwright. Furthermore, the team had to deal with questions and rumors about the future of All-Star first baseman Albert Pujols, which were thought to be a distraction. Yet, the Cardinals are in second place in the National League Central Division, trailing only the 2010 NL Central winner, the Cincinnati Reds. The offense, which is best in all of baseball in runs scored and team batting average, is led by the outfielders, including Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and most shockingly, Lance Berkman. Berkman looked like his career was over after his time with the Yankees, but has found life in St. Louis and has 11 home runs and 35 RBIs this season. The 24-year old left-hander Jaime Garcia has temporarily filled the void of Wainwright, posting a 5-0 record and a 1.64 ERA.
Prediction: The Reds will take the division in a close race, and the Cardinals will be left fighting for a Wild Card spot. Tony La Russa is one of the best managers in the game and has helped his team overcome the adversity at the beginning of the season. Though the team is hitting well now, Berkman will have a hard time keeping up this pace. More importantly, I think the loss of Wainwright is too much to overcome and their lack of depth in the starting rotation leaves them as a Wild Card team at best.
3. Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays were an afterthought in the American League East, as the focus was on the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Now, each of these two teams are working to keep pace with the Rays. With the spotlight off the Rays, manager Joe Maddon has used a combination of pitching and defense to win games. The defense has been strong, especially in the outfield, where the starters have been able to track down balls and prevent extra base hits. The offense isn’t usually the main factor in games, but when it is, a big reason why is outfield Matt Joyce, who has hit the ball well, batting .366 with 6 home runs. James Shields and David Price have performed very well, but the more notable story has been rookie Jeremy Hellickson, who has proven he can be a consistent starter in this league, posting a 2.98 ERA in seven starts.
Prediction: The Rays will ride pitching in order to compete for the division title, but are unable to hold off the surging Red Sox. For the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson will have to be the solid third starter in the rotation. More importantly, who will replace Rafael Soriano as the closer? Playing in tight games, the Rays will need a reliever, such as Kyle Farnsworth, to be reliable in save situations. Despite the strong start, former Tampa Bay Ray Carl Crawford and the Red Sox will take control late in the season, leaving the Rays with a chance overtake the internally struggling Yankees in the Wild Card race.
4. Atlanta Braves/Florida Marlins – These teams are paired together for two reasons. One, both teams have a core group of young players that have a great deal of potential. Two, these two teams were not supposed to be able to compete with the dominant pitching staff of the Philadelphia Phillies; however, both teams are within a few games of the defending division champions. Although Hanley Ramirez has struggled for the Marlins, Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton have combined for 15 home runs and 44 RBIs. Josh Johnson leads the league with a 1.64 ERA and closer Leo Nunez has yet to blow a save.
The Braves have done enough offensively, with Chipper Jones playing well after coming back from a knee injury that cut his 2010 season short; however, the team will need more help from talented prospect Freddie Freeman, who has the tools to develop into a star. As far as pitching, Jair Jurrjens, who is 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA, has been the stud pitcher in the rotation along with veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe. Rookie Craig Kimbrel has been the man in the ninth inning, closing out two crucial victories against the Phillies over the weekend, and he continues to strikeout batters.
Prediction: Neither team will be able to overtake the Phillies in the National League East. Though the ability of these teams to compete in every game will keep them close for a considerable part of the season, the pitching staff of the Phillies will be too strong in the end. As long as Chipper remains healthy, the Braves, who have a deeper pitching staff than the Marlins, will have a legitimate shot to grab the Wild Card position.
